Head & Neck Institute Outcomes
Head and Neck Surgery and Oncology
Predictive Value of the ACS NSQIP Calculator for Head and Neck Reconstruction Free Tissue Transfer
2012-2015
Predictive models to forecast the likelihood of specific outcomes after surgical intervention allow informed shared decision-making by surgeons and patients. Previous studies have suggested that existing general surgical risk calculators poorly forecast head and neck surgical outcomes. However, no large study has addressed this question while subdividing subjects by surgery performed. The objective of the study is to determine the accuracy of the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator in estimating length of hospital stay and risk of postoperative complications after free tissue transfer surgery.
Incidence Versus Predicted Incidence of Observed Events (N = 320)
2012-2015
This study shows that the NSQIP SRC calculator is not able to accurately predict postoperative complications in ALT, FFF, or RFFF procedures overall. However, it was an accurate predictor for hospital LOS and does correlate with certain outcomes. It is our opinion that the NSQIP calculator requires modification to be applicable to head and neck free tissue transfer surgeries. Further research in developing a head and neck-specific SRC that more accurately predicts outcomes for these patients is warranted and promising.
